Why Are Tesla 2024.8.9 Owners Waiting So Long For An Update?

Tesla's latest batch of updates is progressing rapidly, fixing numerous bugs, in line with Musk's philosophy of "move fast and break things."

Some users are still on version 2024.8.9, others on 2024.3.25, some have the spring update 2024.14.8, and there’s even a new 2024.20 version currently being tested by employees.

Let's take a look at how Tesla's software distribution system works.

Statistics

Before diving into how everything works, let's look at some statistics. We’ll use data provided by TeslaFi on our website.

Credit: TeslaFi

We can see that about 30% of tracked cars are on version 2024.14 (spring update), version 2024.8 (Tesla’s last major update, including FSD V11), and version 2024.3 (FSD V12.3 update). The remaining cars using version 2023.44 or other updates are quite few, approximately 10%.

Thus, around 65% of the tracked fleet has access to FSD V12, depending on their country of origin. The remaining 25% of the fleet can only use FSD V11 in eligible regions.

FSD Update Tracking

After subscribing to or purchasing FSD, Tesla enables the FSD feature on the vehicle's firmware, which may currently be FSD v11 or FSD v12.

Once you subscribe to FSD, you typically enter the FSD tracking, meaning you will start receiving the latest FSD updates. However, these updates usually arrive later than Tesla’s main non-FSD branch features.

Tesla’s FSD channel has historically lagged behind the main branch, a trend that has continued since the FSD beta was first introduced to customers several years ago.

Vehicle Eligibility

Not all vehicles are eligible for all updates, and there are two main reasons for this.

Firstly, if you are on a newer branch update like 2024.8.9, you cannot downgrade to 2024.3.5. Version numbers are segmented by year, week number, and revision. For instance, the 2024.8.9 update is the ninth revision of an update created in the 8th week of 2024.

Typically, Tesla does not roll back versions, so if someone is already on the 2024.14 update, their vehicle would not be eligible for FSD 12.4, which corresponds to the 2024.9.5 update. This is primarily because Tesla does not thoroughly test rollback software, presenting potential issues. Your vehicle will always be eligible for subsequent branch updates, even if you do not necessarily receive that update – for example, many owners using the 2024.8 or 2024.3 updates have not yet received the 2024.14 update.

The second factor is hardware. Vehicles with older hardware variants, or those deemed to be older versions, are not eligible for certain updates. This is determined by Tesla because newer features require updated hardware, and support for legacy hardware may not be included in all updates.

If you have subscribed to FSD, are on the 2024.8.9 update, and are wondering why you have not received the 2024.14 update, this is the reason. Tesla wants your vehicle to be eligible for the next FSD v12.4 update, which is the 2024.9.5 update.

Vehicle Models

Sometimes, updates are not widely distributed, and the reason is simple: hardware variations. Over the years, Tesla's fleet has become quite fragmented, with many different variants of vehicles currently on the road. Some 2022 Model Ys might have matrix headlights, while others do not; some might have USS, while others do not. Most have HW3, but there are also a few with HW4!

Within a single year, there can be six possible branch variations, and for the 2022 Model Y alone, there are 24 possible variations. This doesn’t even include performance versions, long-range versions, rear-wheel-drive versions, 4680 cell rear-wheel-drive versions, and the peculiar 2022 standard range dual motor variant, all of which differ as well!

If you do the math, there could be 362,000 variations, but Tesla likely distinguishes no more than about 40 actual builds in the software for all vehicles. Of course, Tesla has managed to reduce these variations in the 2023 and 2024 model years, greatly simplifying the production chain by eliminating USS in favor of Tesla Vision, moving all factories to Hardware 4, and making matrix headlights a global standard. However, all these existing vehicles are not traditional models and still need updates. This necessitates a complex and meticulous update process to deploy feature updates for all these vehicle models.

Bug Fixes

In addition to the complexity of vehicle variations, Tesla must also capture and fix bugs. No matter how strong the software development capabilities are, sometimes bugs still slip through. Fixing these issues is crucial because they can render vehicles undrivable. Although major issues are rare, Tesla has had some problems in the past, such as the failure of automatic emergency braking due to software issues. This is why Tesla rolls out updates gradually.

We’ve seen this with the 2024.14 update, which has had several bug fix versions released. Tesla releases the update to a group of cars, halts the rollout when issues are found, and then releases another update a few days later with additional fixes. This process repeats as necessary.

Conclusion

So, if you're still on version 2024.8.9 or 2024.3.25 and wondering when you’ll get FSD V12 or the spring update, you’ll just have to keep waiting. Elon Musk mentioned on X that FSD V12.4 should be the update that reduces the FSD branches and brings everyone into FSD V12.

When we finally receive FSD V12.4, we might still need to hold on a bit longer until FSD V12.4.1 or FSD V12.5 introduces the spring update.