Tesla Robotaxi Launch Delayed to October: Share Price Falls $70 Billion

The highly anticipated Tesla Robotaxi project has indeed been delayed.

According to a Bloomberg report on July 11, sources familiar with the matter have revealed that Tesla will push back the release of its planned autonomous taxi to October. This delay is intended to give the project team more time to develop the prototype.

The sources indicated that the approximately two-month delay has been communicated internally. Since this information has not been made public, the sources requested anonymity. One source mentioned that the design team was informed this week to redesign certain elements of the vehicle.

Tesla has yet to respond officially. When asked by bloggers, Elon Musk also did not provide any answers.

The good news is that the delay is only two months, from the originally planned August to October this year. For Elon Musk, this is pretty standard, considering it’s only a two-month delay. Think about the Cybertruck—it took a full four years from announcement to delivery. Each time they promised mass production, it got delayed, and when it finally delivered, the price was higher and the features were fewer than initially promised.

According to Musk's vision, Tesla's Robotaxi fleet will combine the business models of Airbnb and Uber. Tesla owners will be able to join the Robotaxi network, deciding when to use their cars personally and when to let them operate autonomously to earn extra money. It’s predicted that each car could generate about $30,000 in additional income annually.

The idea is good, but obviously difficult to achieve. When Musk initially announced the August 8 launch date, many were skeptical, believing Tesla wasn’t ready and doubting that Robotaxi would be available this year.

Reuters has commented that if Tesla shifts its small car platform's focus to Robotaxi, it would be a risky bet. The successful launch of autonomous vehicles is still far off, and this technology faces significant engineering and regulatory challenges.

CEO Elon Musk set the Robotaxi launch date for August 8 several months ago. As the date approached, optimism about the event drove Tesla's stock price up for 11 consecutive days, adding over $257 billion in market value and marking the longest streak of gains since June 2023. However, when news of the delay broke, the stock price quickly fell, dropping 8.44% that day and wiping out about $70 billion in market value, the largest single-day drop since January 2024.

This news also impacted competitors Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc., whose stock prices surged. On Thursday, Uber's stock rose by 6.1%, while Lyft's increased by 4.6%.

Internally, even within Tesla, there were doubts about meeting the August 8 deadline. Some believed it was too ambitious, and the project team had to make emergency preparations to save face for Musk.

Tesla Robotaxi Launch Faces Two Major Challenges

To ensure that Robotaxi launches on time, Tesla must focus on two key areas: the progress of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system and the design of the vehicle itself.

Recently, Tesla renamed its FSD system from "FSD Beta" to "FSD Supervised," indicating a transition from public testing to a more commercialized phase. This phased improvement likely gives Musk the confidence to announce the Robotaxi plan.

However, during the annual shareholders meeting, Musk admitted that FSD faces challenges. He pointed out that as the system advances, evaluating the AI model's performance becomes more complex, potentially leading to a "seesaw problem" where solving one issue might introduce new ones. He plans an upgrade later this year.

Currently, the latest widely deployed version is FSD V12.4.3, but user feedback is mixed. A long-time FSD Beta tester, @WholeMarsBlog, mentioned that FSD V12.4.3 still exhibits "swerving" within the lane during highway driving.

Moreover, Musk recently announced that starting with FSD V12.5, Tesla will unify the technology stack for both highways and urban areas, using end-to-end technology. This update was expected by the end of June, but Musk has yet to deliver.

As the Robotaxi launch date approaches, some users have spotted what appears to be a Tesla Robotaxi test vehicle. From the photos, the progress on the Robotaxi seems quite slow, as the test vehicle appears to be a modified Model 3, simply without rearview mirrors and with additional cameras.

The front bumper has a new camera, there’s a forward-angled camera behind the B-pillar, and a rearward-angled camera on the front fender replacing the rearview mirror. Additionally, there's a new camera in the "S" of the "TESLA" logo on the back of the car.

According to Musk's earlier disclosures about the Robotaxi, the new vehicle was supposed to be built on a new platform and equipped with a new autonomous driving suite. However, from the leaked images, it’s clear that Musk's Robotaxi still has a long way to go.